Thursday, September 28, 2006

We're gonna win Twins, we're gonna score, we got the guys that knock the cover off the ball....

The Twins came up with a 7-3 road trip at the same time as watching the ChiSox flounder. They managed to clinch a playoff spot Monday, the team's 4th in 5 years. Pretty darn good time to be a Twins fan. Hopefully, they can make some noise come playoff time. It looks like they will be matched up against the Yankees in the ALDS and nothing would be sweeter than bouncing them from the playoffs on their way to the World Series. A quick look at the Yankess lineup and it's like "good luck' you'll need it." However, I think the Twins have several advantages over the Yanks.

Reasons why the Twins will win:
1. THE best pitcher in baseball the last 3 years potentially starting 2 of the 5 games. The best the Yanks can do is throw out a good, but untested Chien-Ming Wang and 2 dinosaurs who have been rocked recently and are both battling injuries.

2. Both teams have dominant closers, but the twins bullpen ERA (2.97) is over 1 run better than the Yanks. It's hard to extrapolate what happened over the course of the season into what will happen in a 5 or 7 game series (probably why postseason baseball is so exciting), but bullpens are critical in the playoffs and the Twins have the best.

3. No arguing the the Yanks have a scary lineup, but the Twins lineup is nothing to shake a stick at either (see best team BA in the majors). This is not your 2002-2004 Twins lineup. These Twins have good top of the order guys in Castillo and Punto, an honest to god scary middle-of-the-order in possible batting champ Mauer, best hitter in baseball over the last 4 months in Morneau, 100RBI man Cuddyer, and candidate for player of the month in Sept in Hunter. Bottom of the lineup is not too shabby either. And yes, the Twins have their own middle infielder batting in the 9th spot with a BA north of .300.

Reasons why the Twins won't win:
1. THAT lineup. It may be hard for the Twins to score enough runs, even against a weak Yankee pitching staff, if the Yanks lineup come through and scores runs like they are expected to. Especially, if Santana is not dominant in his starts.

2. No homefield advantage. They will need to win in Yankee Stadium; something that hasn't come that easy to Twins teams in the recent past.

3. Pitching staff is missing 2 of their top 3 starters. This all changes if Radke is somehow able to throw the ball well today and pitch a playoff game. Radke is the epitome of the word 'gamer,' and if he has anything left in the tank, it could be the difference maker. The other arm they will miss sorely (no pun intended), is the left wing of Francisco Liriano. He was downright nasty until he came up lame twice with a somewhat mysterious left elbow injury. I don't want to engage in too many 'what if's,' but I think the Twins would be WS favorites with a healthy F-bomb and Bradke.

No comments: